India’s Farm Exports May Withstand US Tariffs as Competitors Face Steeper Duties

India’s agricultural exports to the United States may remain resilient—and even expand—despite newly announced US tariffs, as rival exporting nations face steeper trade barriers, according to leading economists.

President Donald Trump recently imposed a 26% “discounted reciprocal tariff” on Indian goods as part of a broader tariff realignment targeting multiple countries. While this move initially raised concerns over its impact on agri-exports, experts say India may benefit in relative terms.

“We should not look at the tariff increase in isolation but in comparison with our competitors,” said Ashok Gulati, a renowned agricultural economist and chair professor at ICRIER. “China, for example, faces 34%, while Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Thailand are looking at tariffs ranging from 36% to 46%. That gives India a competitive edge.”

Shrimp and Rice Exports Well-Positioned

Seafood exports—particularly shrimp—are likely to remain stable, Gulati said, due to their small share in overall US food consumption. “Despite the 26% tariff, Indian seafood may hold or even improve its market position, especially since Vietnam and Indonesia face higher duties.”

Rice exports, another key agri-product, are expected to stay competitive. While India faces a tariff between 26% and 27%, exporters from Thailand and Vietnam are likely to be hit harder, creating room for Indian exporters to gain market share.

Strategic Talks Hold the Key

The ultimate impact, Gulati noted, will depend on how India leverages bilateral trade negotiations with Washington. “The key lies in striking a smart bilateral trade agreement (BTA),” he said. “India may not lose much in agriculture. In fact, if we negotiate well, we could turn this challenge into an opportunity.”

With strategic engagement and relative tariff advantages, India’s farm sector may weather the tariff storm better than expected.

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